Download the fantastic book titled Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects written by Yuri G. Raydugin, available in its entirety in both PDF and EPUB formats for online reading. This page includes a concise summary, a preview of the book cover, and detailed information about "Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects", which was released on 23 July 2020. We suggest perusing the summary before initiating your download. This book is a top selection for enthusiasts of the genre.
Summary of Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects by Yuri G. Raydugin PDF
Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error. In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.
Detail About Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects PDF
- Author : Yuri G. Raydugin
- Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
- Genre :
- Total Pages : 375 pages
- ISBN : 0198844336
- Release Date : 23 July 2020
- PDF File Size : 10,8 Mb
- Language : English
- Rating : 4/5 from 21 reviews
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