Download the fantastic book titled Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock, available in its entirety in both PDF and EPUB formats for online reading. This page includes a concise summary, a preview of the book cover, and detailed information about "Expert Political Judgment", which was released on 29 August 2017. We suggest perusing the summary before initiating your download. This book is a top selection for enthusiasts of the Political Science genre.
Summary of Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock PDF
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Detail About Expert Political Judgment PDF
- Author : Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher : Princeton University Press
- Genre : Political Science
- Total Pages : 368 pages
- ISBN : 1400888816
- Release Date : 29 August 2017
- PDF File Size : 16,9 Mb
- Language : English
- Rating : 4/5 from 21 reviews
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